THE PLAYOFF
The most notable thing about the 2014 season is that it's the first ever four-team playoff to determine the champion. The four team playoff is a perfect idea for it's place and time: It satiates the playoff-hungry crowd while not being too far of a departure from the past. I'm not sure if the size of the playoff is optimal in the long run (although I like it a lot), but it solves the main issue of the BCS - it could only take two teams, when three or four often had great arguments to be champions.
All that said, my love of the playoff isn't without doubts. My main concern is over the thought process the selection committee will use, which shouldn't be a surprise given my occasional dislike of the basketball committee. My main worry is that the "deserver" argument will come into play. I've often crusaded against "deserver-ism" in college sports analysis - that is, the idea that a team that wins all its games or wins its conference automatically deserves its lofty spot in the postseason (Obviously, most teams that go 12-0 and 13-0 should be right in the thick of the discussion for playoff berths, but I think we lose a lot by reducing the complexity of reality into simple heuristics). Luckily, it seems like the committee gets it:
Oliver Luck tells @TimBrando the CFP committee is using "best" and "shying away from using 'most deserving'" when picking the top 4
— Patrick Netherton (@PTNetherton) July 29, 2014
Now, one tweet doesn't mean everything is peachy, but this is a promising first step. As a fan that watches an ungodly amount of college football and follows the analytical side of the sport closely, I would feel a bit put off if the people paid just to watch football and then talk about took the easy way out. If an 11-2 SEC runner up like Georgia has been more impressive than an 11-1 Oklahoma team that survived multiple close wins, I'd like the committee to acknowledge it. It's foolish to think that there will be a non-controversial answer to who the best four teams are every season, but I'd like to think we can at least eliminate some of the worst choices the committee could make. Both this statement from Oliver Luck, and the smarter approach to data* make it seem like this playoff idea might just work.
*Smarter than college basketball which uses the dumb RPI, and smarter than the BCS which stripped out margin of victory from the computers.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
In spite of my optimism in the previous section, I still have a couple of worries about the playoff. The biggest one concerns the committee's emphasis on strength on schedule. Obviously, you need to evaluate the quality of competition when determining just how good a team is. That said, I worry that the committee may take the easy way out, and reject teams with bad schedule strengths outright without evaluating the teams more completely. I don't think a juggernaut like last year's Florida State team (Sagarin SOS of 62) is going to be in any trouble, but I do worry about the more marginal cases like the TCUs and Boise States of yesteryear, that would have had very strong arguments to be included in the top four. Specifically, my worries boil down to two main areas:
1. Measuring Strength of Schedule is Imperfect
This article came to my attention recently. It's conclusion is interesting, and the methodology appears to be solid, but there's one pretty big problem with it:
If you scroll all the way to the bottom, you'll see that they use the NCAA's terrible no-good strength of schedule calculation* (which is also used in basketball, as part of the RPI). Much like the RPI, it generally gets you in the neighborhood of the truth, but can pretty easily be wrong and even manipulated by savvy (read: rich) programs. Also much like the RPI, it's likely to be used by the committee (which is why I can't really get angry at the author of the article....they're just using the metric that is likely to be used).
* I didn't even mention he worst part about it, which is the lack of a home/road designation.
The general impression one gets from seeing strength of schedule plastered on ESPN is that it is one number that perfectly reflects true difficulty. In reality, there's no one perfect way to measure strength of schedule. A schedule that a top team finds difficult, may be advantageous for a more middling program, and vice versa. For example, Florida State's schedule in 2013 featured no top-notch opponents, save Clemson. As a result it was quite easy for Florida State as they marched towards a national title. On the other hand, a middle of the pack team might not have liked to play a bunch of average teams, preferring instead to play a couple strong teams and bunch of bottom feeders. This shows that there is inherently no perfect way to calculate SOS since different teams are looking for different things.
In the end, I really like the SOS that Fremeau uses in his metric, FEI. There, he looks at how likely it is that a top five team would go 12-0 with that schedule. Given that we most often care about the best teams when we are talking about strength of schedule, this makes sense for most practical purposes. I just hope that the committee is able to discern the same complexity in such a seemingly simple matter.
2. You Really Can't Control Your Strength of Schedule
The first argument is more of a tactical issue, while this argument is more of a big picture argument. Consider first how a schedule is made. Depending on which conference you are in, eight or nine of your games are determine by the league office. If your division is in a down year (2013 Florida State) or your cross-conference games are terrible (2013 Alabama), this is going to start you off on the wrong foot. As for non-conference games, these are often determined years out, with as much as a fifteen-year gap separating the announcement of a game and the playing of it. For example, when Ohio State scheduled Cal, they were one of the hottest programs in the nation coming off of legendary battles with USC and a national ranking as high as #2. Then when they played the last couple of seasons, Ohio State got beat up for having a terrible schedule. Of course, Ohio State is the lucky one in this situation - a lot of times those games don't even get played because one partner backs out (Oregon-Kansas State, FSU-West Virginia, Alabama-Michigan State, etc...). In the end all you can do is try your best to get into a strong conference and schedule good games, and maybe you'll get a good strength of schedule.
Even more, the struggle for power-five teams is nothing when compared with that of the other half of the FCS. In order to overcome a weak in-conference schedule just to get a decent overall SOS, you need to schedule multiple games against big-name teams, which often puts you at the mercy of those teams. Even if you do luck out and find a couple top teams that are willing to play you, small conference teams generally have to play neutral site games, one-off road games, or trade two games for one home game. We can dismiss small conference teams for their SOS all we want, but all those teams can do is play the schedule laid out in front of them.
MY TEAMS
I would feel remiss if I didn't talk about my teams for a minute, even though I am less than enthused about the seasons to come, for reasons that will soon be obvious. As you have probably heard, Notre Dame will likely suspend four players for cheating. I am obviously disappointed in the players, not only because it will hurt the team, but because I expect better out of ND athletes (and having gone there, I know they get a lot of advantages like scheduling priority and free tutoring that should make things a little easier on them). That said, I'm pretty happy with the way the University has handled it, getting out in front of the scandal, and giving every indication that they will punish any offenders appropriately. The academic prestige of Notre Dame doesn't dictate that every student will behave perfectly all the time. Rather it says that there is a high expectation of integrity, and any deviations from that will be dealt with swiftly and harshly. Overall, I think this episode has gone as well as it could have.
Of course, not everyone agrees with me on that last point. Most notably, Stewart Mandel (now of Fox Sports) wrote a fairly scathing column that I would rather not link to. Mandel's main idea in the column is that one of Notre Dame's main selling points to recruits is the academic prestige, and now that it's tarnished by this scandal, he doesn't see what Notre Dame has left to set it apart. This argument doesn't make too much sense, as the actions of four players obviously doesn't change anything about a top twenty university that turns out a couple thousand undergraduates every year. In fact, I think the University's response to the scandal only reaffirms this - by being proactive and firm in their handling of the matter, they are indicating that the school's academic prestige is more important than winning games. Mandel is normally a good writer, so I will forgive him for this one #hotsportstake, much as he should think of Notre Dame as the same after this one isolated incident.
As for Nebraska, they also had their own personnel losses above and beyond graduation, although the players involved aren't quite as critical as those that Notre Dame lost. As much as I've come to love Bo Pelini embracing the weirder side of his personality, I have a feeling that this season might be the end of the road for him. Prior to the injuries, Nebraska was already just 41st in Football Outsiders' preseason projections, so there's a real chance of this being the worst unit under his watch. The schedule is certainly favorable enough for even a mediocre team to win a superficially nice 8 or 9 games (57% chance of 8+ wins), but much like Solich's final 9-3 season (that was actually pretty ugly), I am hoping the administration can see through an inflated record if the team truly does fail to improve.
OVERRATED AND UNDERRATED
While I said that I mostly liked the mainstream preseason rankings at the top of the article, I don't think they are perfect. It would be weird if I did think that, mainly because this guy is one of the voters, and I'm guessing he's far too concerned with golf and free refills to do the necessary research:
In my humble opinion, here are the biggest misses from the inaugural Amway Coaches Poll:
#3 Oklahoma - Overrated
Every year a team wins a big bowl game unexpectedly, and then gets overrated the next year. You think we would have learned from the West Virginias of yesteryear, but voters pretty much never do. Oklahoma will almost certainly be quite good this year, but #3 seems extreme for a team that didn't show much offensive spark until the bowl game. The defense is bound to improve after an injury-riddled season, but the month of August has already seen 2013's leading tackler Frank Shannon and RB Joe Mixon get suspended for the year. In spite of a string of good but not great seasons, Oklahoma still has a nice depth of talent, but the margin for error is a little higher than with other top teams, which makes #3 just a bit too high for me.
#7 UCLA - Overrated
On average, roughly one team per year that starts in the top ten will finish unranked. Last year, it was Florida, who endured a heap of injuries, terrible offensive philosophy*, and some bad luck. While I don't think that will happen to UCLA, I do think they are the most likely of the top ten to take a tumble. A #16 rating and a tough schedule conspire to give UCLA a greater than 50% chance of losing four or more games, according to Football Outsiders. Jim Mora Jr. is doing a much, much better job than I thought he would do with the Bruins, but the depth of talent isn't quite there yet to support a run at the title.**
*Sorry, had to link to it
** Speaking of offensive philosophies, I hate watching the Bruins. In spite of some great skill-position talent, UCLA ranked just 69th in IsoPPP+ (the measure for explosiveness) last year. Noel Mazzone is going to have to open up his offense a bit if he wants to match the lofty expectations set for his team.
#9 South Carolina - Underrated
Jadeveon Clowney is gone. As is Connor Shaw. As is Bruce Ellington. Those are all pretty big pieces of a team that went 12-2 on their way to being perhaps the best team in school history. The reason I think that the Gamecocks are underrated is that literally almost everyone else returns. Add in a couple of top twenty recruiting classes from the past couple years, and we have ourselves one of the most loaded rosters in the game. In fact, I can't think of a team that I hold in higher esteem after the somewhat obvious top three (FSU, Bama, and Oregon). I agree with Coach Spurrier that this team will be quite decent.
#14 Wisconsin - Overrated
While Wisconsin has a reasonably easy path to 10 or 11 wins, I'm not sure if this will be as good of a Wisconsin team as we are used to. The transition from Bielema to Anderson hurt recruiting a bit, and the Badgers lose about every important player on the defensive side. While I'm a little excited about starting the versatile Tanner McEvoy over the so-so Joel Stave, that's not quite enough to convince me that this will be a top 15 team.
#16 Clemson - Underrated
Much like their in-state rivals, the Tigers lose a few studs from last year's great team. Much like their in-state rivals, they don't lose much else, and have been recruiting at a high level for long enough to have stockpiled enough talent to overcome those losses. Yes, Sammy Watkins is a rare talent and Tajh Boyd was a steady hand, but a loaded defense and some intriguing skill position prospects make for a team with a much higher ceiling than #16. Yes, Clemson may lose one or both of their early road games to Georgia and FSU (who wouldn't?), but once the dust settles, we'll probably be looking at a fourth straight major bowl appearance for Dabo Swinney, which is something that probably would have sounded ridiculous five years ago.
#22 Nebraska - Overrated
I already wrote about the Huskers above, so I'll go with a different angle here. A recent preview article on Fox Sports featured both authors going against the grain, and picking Nebraska to win their division. The problem with this is, even if you think Nebraska is going to be a little better than Wisconsin, that's still not enough to pick them to win the division, mostly due to the Badgers' easy schedule. Not only does Nebraska have to travel to Madison, but they also have an incredibly difficuly cross-division game at Michigan State, while Wisconsin gets to host a mediocre-at-best Maryland team (both teams play Rutgers....poor Rutgers). If Nebraska is to win the division, they'll have to both play to the best of their abilities, and catch a lot of luck. I'm guessing that both of those things won't happen, and we'll be seeing the Badgers (or maybe Iowa, with an even easier schedule) playing in Indianapolis.
Unranked Missouri, Oklahoma State, Florida - Underrated
These teams fall into the two classic categories of underrated teams. On one side we have Florida, whose 4-8 season was as much the result of bad luck and injuries as it was poor play. With Jeff Driskel back, the offense should at least be decent enough to support another great defense, led by stud CB Vernon Hargreaves. I don't expect Florida to soar to the heights of their 2012 season, but one bad season shouldn't completely derail a top program still loaded with talent.
On the other side, we have Missouri and Oklahoma State, who were good enough to be paired together in last year's Cotton Bowl. However, these teams lose about as much playing time as anyone in the nation, and neither program gets the benefit of the doubt that a traditional power gets. While I agree with the first part, I think the problem is the second part. Sure, Missouri and Oklahoma State aren't yet able to reload like Alabama, but there's been enough solid recruiting and just enough returning experience to expect these teams to play like top 25 outfits.
UNDER THE RADAR STORYLINES
We all know Florida State and Alabama are going to be awesome. We know the PAC-12 will featue a couple of great divisional races. We know the Ohio State-Michigan State game is one of the most anticipated Big Ten contests in almost a decade. I don't want to spend time rehashing all of that, so I'm going to dig a bit to find some of the angles to this season that interest me the most. This section is where I get to talk about things that don't really fit anywhere else.
The Most Explosive Offense
Which team do you think had the most explosive offense last year? Don't scroll down and spoil this, because you'll enjoy this one. Most people would probably guess Florida State or Oregon or Baylor. Maybe you think it's someone from a smaller conference, like Fresno State. These would all be good guesses, but as you've probably surmised, they would all be wrong.
Rather, the nation's most explosive offense (by IsoPPP+, which adjusts for opponents) belonged to Kevin Wilson and his drastically improved Indiana offense. The team as a whole may not have defended well enough or been efficient enough on offense to make a bowl, but boy, were they able to deliver the big plays. While some receiving talent is gone (most notably Cody Latimer), the Hoosiers return both quarterbacks as well as the most explosive running back in the nation, Tevin Coleman. Add in an offensive line that literally returns everyone and improved overall recruiting (42nd the past two years), and Indiana has a chance to have its best team in my lifetime. The schedule is tricky (all six road games are against bowl teams, with Rutgers being the only easy game), but Indiana has the talent in place to be one of the most exciting teams in the nation.
Utah's Difficult Road
One task I enjoy at the end of each season is figuring out the best sub-.500 team in the nation. Some years it's easy, and others it is not. Furthermore, as non-conference schedules have grown more and more easy, it's tougher to find a truly good team with seven or more losses. That said, a combination of an amazingly good Pac-12, bad luck in close games, and brutal injuries led the Utes to be a clear "winner" of the prize in 2013.
It's obvious that last year's Utah squad wasn't as good as the two that won BCS bowls, but with a final F/+ ranking of 31st, the program seems to be getting back on track. Tight losses to UCLA and Oregon State, and then the injury to Travis Wilson in the back half of the season conspired to keep the Utes home for the holidays. I would say there's reason for hope (especially since Wilson's career won't be ended by his injuries), but Utah adds non-conference games against Fresno State and Michigan to a loaded Pac-12 slate that includes cross-division games against Oregon and Stanford. While the team may still be solid this year, I'm not sure the win total will show it.
My Personal Favorite Division Race
The SEC West is (rightfully so) the most lauded division in the nation, boasting six top-30 caliber teams. Both of the Pac-12's divisions should be fun races. The East Big Ten division is even a nice one this year, with a few potentially plucky teams rounding out the much stronger side of the conference. All that said, my favorite divisional race of the year comes in the SEC East. There's a bit of a preconception that South Carolina and Georgia's early game will decide everything. This may be true, but Missouri is still a strong contender, especially since they get a relatively easy home game against Arkansas to finish off the season. Florida is less of a contender (3% divisional odds, per Football Outsiders) mostly due to cross-conference games against LSU and Alabama, but they should at least get to play spoiler as they play all three Eastern contenders within the boundaries of Florida. To top it off, the relative ease of this division, as opposed to the West, should allow the winner to be a main contender for a playoff spot, which adds to the intrigue of each big game.
GAMES TO WATCH
It's pretty easy to look over the schedule and find the biggest games. Instead, I like to find some that interest me regardless of how hyped the teams are. Some of these games will host Gameday, while others will be played on CBS Sports Network. The one thing they have in common is that you should watch all of them.
USC at Stanford - September 6
With the Pac-12 as good as it has ever been, there are a billion great games to choose from. That said, I like the first one the best, mainly because it is the most pivotal game of the first two weeks. Stanford road schedule includes Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, and Notre Dame. Given that they'll probably drop one or two of those even if they're a true top five team, they need to seal up the win at home. Meanwhile, USC is getting majorly overshadowed by their divisional foes, and could use a win over the Cardinal for the second straight year to signal their resurgence from the murky depths of the Kiffin era. Given that this series has had some amazing games recently*, I see no reason why this one would be any different.
*In case you forgot:
2007 - Stanford beats #2 USC as 41 point underdogs in perhaps the craziest upset of the craziest season in memory
2008 - USC gets revenge, winning by three touchdowns
2009 - Stanford throttles #11 USC 55-21, prompting a fun exchange between Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh after the game
2010 - The teams trade leads three times in the last 10 minutes, as Stanford wins 37-35
2011 - Andrew Luck leads #4 Stanford over USC in three overtimes
2012 - #21 Stanford beats #2 USC early in the season to start their march to the Pac-12 title
2013 - USC upsets #5 Stanford
Auburn at Kansas State - September 18
Gus Malzahn. Bill Snyder. A rocking Manhattan crowd on a Thursday night. If that's not enough for you to watch, then you're reading the wrong blog.
Alabama at Ole Miss - October 4
Although I don't think they're quite ready to topple the toughest division in the game, I still like Ole Miss a lot this season (QB experience in a league with almost none helps). I especially like them at home in what just might be College Gameday's first ever experience with The Grove. Given that both teams have relatively easy September schedules, I expect this to be a raucous matchup of unbeaten teams. The memory of 2010 Bama-South Carolina keeps screaming in my head when I think of this game....we'll see if Ole Miss is able to pull a similar upset.
Michigan State at Indiana - October 18
I said earlier that I liked Indiana a lot, so let's put their biggest test of the season on this list. While their overall schedule is somewhat difficult, they do get this game at home, so that should give them a fighting chance against the highly ranked Spartans. I already mentioned that Indiana's offense was tops in explosiveness last year. What I haven't yet mentioned was that the Spartans D was tops in efficiency, ranking number one in adjusted success rate (which means that I am also geeked about seeing what the Spartans D can do as an encore). This clash of styles produced a competitive 42-28 Spartan win last year. I'm excited to see what happens on Indiana's home turf with another year of experience in Indiana's suddenly awesome offense.
Rice at Marshall - November 15
First things first: 2014 Marshall is not 2010 Boise State or 2011 TCU. This is not a team that can legitimately ascend into the top five. All that said, one non-power conference team is guaranteed a spot in one of the major bowls, and Marshall has as good of a chance as anyone of making that happen. Furthermore, their biggest challenger for the conference crown visits them in Huntington, which speaks more to their incredibly weak schedule that it does to Rice's football prowess. Still, Rakeem Cato vs. the Owls' unique attack should be a doozy.
South Carolina at Clemson - November 29
While the actual contests haven't been particularly exciting the last couple of years, this game has still grown into one of the most important rivalries of rivalry weekend. Given that both teams have legitimate playoff expectations this year, we could be looking at a virtual play-in game at this point of the season. I'm mostly excited to see how Vic Beasley and the best defensive line in the nation match up against the Gamecock power rushing attack featuring Mike Davis.
PREDICITONS
Since my dad asked for it, let's end with a prediction of who will make the playoff. Why not?
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Clemson
The first three are easy. Florida State is amazing and has a schedule that has enough heft to be taken seriously (meaning they can take a loss and still make it). Alabama is amazing, and has a schedule that they can survive (outside of the SEC West opponents, the only real tests are Florida, Tennessee, and West Virginia). I am not sold on Oregon being head and shoulders above the rest of the Pac-12, but I still like them more than anyone else, and they have a few more home games against top opponents than Stanford, which should swing the balance.
Finally, I decided to go with Clemson, with the hopes that they take care of their two big non-conference tests in Georgia and South Carolina. There wasn't a second SEC team I loved (South Carolina and Auburn are awesome, but the former draws Auburn and A&M from the West in addition to the trip to Clemson, and the latter's road schedule is somehow even harder than Stanford's), and I don't like anyone from the Big 10 or 12 enough to put them above Clemson (Michigan State is close, but it's going to be way too easy for them to lose two games, with a 77% chance of losing two or more according to Football Outsiders). Since there is at least one person who likes Clemson even more than me, I don't feel too crazy for this pick.
For posterity's sake, here's an even better rundown of the recent history of USC-Stanford:
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