As we find ourselves one week from a college basketball season in which there will maybe be one dominant team (Indiana, if they learn that defense thing), those who prefer chalk can take solace in college football, where we have 3 1/2 teams breaking away from the pack (sorry, ND offense, you're not quite there yet). Barring some upsets, you're going to spend the next month hearing everyone's opinion about which teams are the best and deserve to play for all the Discover.* Thus, the task that I take on here is to tell you why a lot of those arguments are stupid.
*Two years ago I thought the phrase "all the Tostitos" was going to catch on in my personal lexicon, but alas it hasn't. I guess there's still time.
First of all, the likelihood of all the top four teams finishing undefeated is still pretty low. For illustrative purposes, and also for simplicty's sake, let's give each remaining legitimate opponent of an unbeaten a very conservative 10% chance of pulling off the upset. Here are the remaining legitimate opponents:
Alabama: LSU, Texas A&M, SEC East Champ
Oregon: USC, Stanford, Oregon State, P12 South Champ
Kansas State: Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Texas
ND: Pitt, USC
Those games aren't completely independent events, since USC plays both ND and Oregon, but for all practical purposes we can treat them as such. Using the binomial distribution, we get the following odds:
All 4 unbeaten: 25.4%
3 unbeatens: 42.1%
2 unbeatens: 25.3%
1 unbeaten: 6.6%
No unbeatens: 0.6%
Even with a very chalky forecast, we still only see a 1 in 4 chance of pure BCS armageddon. What this shows is that we can speculate all we want, but the odds are still in favor of at least one team dropping a game between now and the end of the season.
Secondly, many of the arguments you hear will come down to the whole "deserver" motif that I described last year. Many will argue that since the SEC and the Big 12 are better than all of the other conferences, then Alabama and Kansas State should play each other for the title. This is an incomplete argument. First of all, judging by current Sagarin SOS of the four teams, Notre Dame's "conference" has been the best:
ND: 10th
Alabama: 26th
Kansas State: 30th
Oregon: 62nd
Sure, ND's SOS will slip some as they play the bottom feeders of the current and future ACC, but it shouldn't fall much below the other teams, if at all.
Furthermore, you can't really fault Oregon for the relative weakness of the PAC-12. You could make an argument against them if they were having trouble, but they've blown out everyone they've played and have only had to play in earnest in the second half once (Washington State). You can't really harp on their non-conference schedule either, since Kansas State pulled out of a game with them. In the end, you can only play what's laid out before you, and Oregon has done that as well as anyone.
Finally, if we do end up with more than 2 unbeaten teams at the end of the year, the chances are that they'll be relaively equal teams. Anyone who tells you that Alabama or Oregon are far and away better than the other teams is exaggerating. In the previously mentioned column from last year, I remarked on how you couldn't make a definitive argument about whether or Alabama or Oklahoma State was better. I feel that I will have a fairly similar stance this year. Sure, Alabama may break away from the pack a little bit if they continue to dominate, but the other teams will still have fantastic accomplishments as well, and could definitely beat Alabama in the title game.
The rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Kansas State
4. Notre Dame
5. Florida State
6. LSU
7. Clemson
8. Ohio State
9. Georgia
10. Florida
11. Texas A&M
12. South Carolina
13. Oklahoma
14. Oklahoma State
15. USC
16. Oregon State
17. Texas
18. Texas Tech
19. Mississippi State
20. Louisiana Tech
21. Louisville
22. Boise State
23. Northern Illinois
24. Nebraska
25. Kent State
Also considered: Stanford, Rutgers, Michigan, Toledo, West Virginia, Arizona, UCLA, Ole Miss
Notes on the rankings:
- I'm pretty comfortable with the order of the top 4 for now. Alabama and Oregon have been the most dominant, and Kansas State has a more trustworthy offense than the Irish. Obviously, this weekend will have big tests for all of the teams (well, maybe just a small test for ND), so we'll see where the teams lie after that. For everyone who says that preseason polls unduly influence later polls, I had those four teams in a different order in my preseason poll (Oregon, Bama, ND, KSU, and the Wildcats were unranked with a vengeance), so there's been some thought put into it.
- I might have Florida State and Clemson a little overranked, but I'm fine with it. Their September game was one of the best of the season, and they've been mostly blowing out the weakings of the ACC, so I'll keep them high for now. They'll both get big tests over Thanksgiving weekend with their in-state SEC rivals, so we'll learn a little more about them then.
- Louisville is probably overranked as well, but if you're undefeated at this point of the season, you get put in the rankings. Their inability to beat even poor teams like Southern Miss and Florida International by more than a touchdown is concerning. They have a good chance of losing to either Syracuse or Rutgers, if not both. Charlie Strong has undubitably done a great job, but they're probably still a year away from being a truly dangerous team.
- Yes, I should probably have Arizona and Stanford ranked, but I just can't help but pay some respect to the amazing MACtion happening this season. Since this poll doesn't matter at all, I don't feel the least bit guilty.
Thoughts on this weekend:
The top matchups of this weekend have lost a little bit of their luster, but this is still probably the best weekend of the season to sit down and watch football all day. If you're inclined to do just that, here is what I think you'll see:
Oklahoma at Iowa State - Jack Trice Stadium is one of the best, most random home field advantages in the game, and Iowa State is a legitimately good team. However, let's not get carried away here. Oklahoma is a very good team that's probably going to be angry and is not going to lose back to back games: Oklahoma 44, Iowa State 13
Texas A&M at Mississippi State - The maroon-off that you've all been waiting for is finally here. Unfortunately, it won't be much of a game. I'm sure my CFB man-crush Johnthan Banks will make a play or two, but he'll need to do more than that to overcome the talent gap between these two teams: Texas A&M 41, Mississippi State 21
TCU at West Virginia - This might be the most unpredictable game of the day. The Mountaineers have turned in back to back clunkers, but still have the potential to score at will. TCU was only mildly impressive when Casey Pachall was on the roster, and now has two very different results since he was kicked off the team (53 points against Texas Tech and 14 against Oklahoma State, both losses). Thus, I will ask Excel to pick random numbers between 2 and 99: West Virginia 96, TCU 3
Nebraska at Michigan State - I'm not feeling too good about this game. Sure, Michigan State has been having trouble getting the offense going, and they don't have the home field advantage that most teams do. Still, that defense is still amazing, and Taylor Martinez is still Taylor Martinez. In the end, I'll say Nebraska does just enough to pull out the win: Nebraska 17, Michigan State 13
Ole Miss at Georgia - Not only is this a perfect letdown opportunity, but it's a great chance for Ole Miss to show how improved they are in Hugh Freeze's first year. If my prediction holds up, then Florida will clinch the SEC East, assuming they get by Missouri: Ole Miss 31, Georgia 26
Pitt at Notre Dame - If the Irish are going to get tripped up before USC, the Panthers are the most likely culprit. We were able to shut down the other power rushing attack we faced (MSU), but Tino Sunseri can throw a little bit better, so the possibility exists for something to happen. That being said, Pitt will probably be too distracted by that vampire midterm coming up: ND 35, Pitt 14
Texas at Texas Tech - Similar to West Virginia, I don't really know what to think of Texas. They do boast a couple of impressive September victories over Ole Miss and Oklahoma State, but they've done nothing since then. I tend to think that a visit to Seth Doege's house won't be the best medicine: Texas Tech 48, Texas 38
Oregon at USC - As much as everyone is interested in seeing if Oregon's offense will be slowed down at all (it won't), the most interesting part of this matchup is Matt Barkley versus a surprisingly good Oregon D. I still like Barkley as the first pick in the draft (if you're looking for a QB, that is), so if anyone can outscore Oregon, it's him: Oregon 59, USC 38
Alabama at LSU - AJ McCarron has been nothing short of amazing this year, but he hasn't faced a test like this yet. More importantly, he hasn't had to play from behind or with a small lead. I'm guessing he finally thows his first interception of the season in this game, but I don't think it will be enough to lose the game: Alabama 21, LSU 13
Oklahoma State at Kansas State - This quietly might be the best game of the weekend. As I've been saying all season, the Cowboys are underrated, and I think that they have a real chance to pull this one off. In the end, I'll go with the Collin Klein's experience to pull the game out late: Kansas State 35, Oklahoma State 28
Arizona at UCLA - The winner of this game is in charge of the division if USC loses. I'll give UCLA the slight advantage since they're at home. Also, Arizona QB Matt Scott is coming off of a head injury: UCLA 41, Arizona 38
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